Myanmar’s military prioritizes its own survival in earthquake response

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Myanmar's military prioritizes its own survival in earthquake response

Myanmar's military prioritizes its own survival in earthquake response
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thilton.drupal
2 April 2025

The devastating earthquake has put further strain on the embattled military regime as it fights a civil war. It is unlikely to collapse imminently, but the country's crisis will only get worse.



The scenes from earthquake-hit parts of central Myanmar are apocalyptic. At least 2,000 people are known to have been killed and unknown numbers lie buried in the rubble. Thousands of homes have been destroyed or damaged and key pieces of national infrastructure, from the Ava railway bridge between the cities of Mandalay and Sagaing to the airport at Naypyidaw, have been destroyed or rendered unusable. The costs of years of shoddy construction and poor maintenance have been made painfully obvious. The consequences of the events of 28 March will be long-lasting.

The earthquake is the latest in a line of tragedies to affect the people of Myanmar in the past few years. The hope created by the first democratic elections of 2015 has long since evaporated. In August 2017, the military and local militias killed thousands of Rohingya Muslims in the north-western state of Rakhine and hundreds of thousands more were forced to flee to Bangladesh. In February 2021, the military launched a coup and imprisoned the country's democratic leadership, including Aung San Suu Kyi. During the four years since, the country has fragmented. Separatist ethnic armed groups have restarted dormant campaigns and more than 6,000 people have been killed by the military's response.

Estimates by the US-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project  (Acled) in November 2024 suggested that ethnic armed organizations and so-called 'self-defence forces' control 42 per cent of Myanmar,  and described a further 29 per cent of the country as 'contested.' The military is in complete control of only 21 per cent of the country (the remaining 8 per cent is sparsely populated forest). It is the highly populated area controlled by the military that was most badly hit by the earthquake. This is not entirely coincidental. The earthquake was caused by the Sagaing Fault, along which the Ayeyarwady (Irrawaddy) River flows. This low-lying, rice-growing river valley is the heartland of the Bamar, the country's largest ethnic group from which the army recruits most of its soldiers.

The dilemma faced by Western governments and aid agencies is how to get support to those who need it without it being diverted to the military or used as a bargaining tool in the civil war.

The army rules, and fights, with extreme brutality. In its heartland areas it forcibly conscripts young men  and brutalizes those who demonstrate for democracy. In the areas controlled by its opponents it has conducted thousands of airstrikes, bombing schools, hospitals and churches. These are still continuing, despite the earthquake. This is only to be expected. Throughout the previous period of military rule, from 1962 to 2015, the army displayed ruthlessness and inflexibility. It sees itself as the sole force capable of keeping the country united and is determined not to give away territory to separatist ethnic groups or give up control of the state.

There is a parallel with the way the regime prioritized internal security over international aid after the impact of Cyclone Nargis in 2008. Back then it continued with the organization of a sham referendum intended to endorse a new constitution even as a storm surge drowned thousands of people. With its generals isolated in the newly built capital in Naypyidaw, the military was more focused on regime survival than saving lives. It is unlikely to be any different this time.
Foreign aid dilemma
The military's international partners, notably China, Russia, India and Vietnam, have rushed to provide highly visible displays of help, in particular through the deployment of brightly coloured search and rescue teams. These operations were largely performative but have been highlighted by state media in both Myanmar and the donor countries as evidence of strong relations. 

The dilemma faced by Western governments and aid agencies is how to get support to those who need it without it being diverted to the military or used as a bargaining tool in the civil war. Given the location of much of the damage, it is likely that they will be obliged to work with the military, despite their well-founded misgivings, in order to reach those who need help the most. The military will want to control the aid distribution and present it as their own initiative to reduce the embarrassment of being seen to rely on foreigners. Each government and aid agency will have to decide whether it is worse to abandon the victims or to be used as tools of military propaganda. 


Source: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/04/myanmars-military-prioritizes-its-own-survival-earthquake-response Apr 02, 2025, 08:18 AM