Zelenskyy and Trump have agreed a minerals deal – but it will not stop the war in Ukraine

[LToremark]

Zelenskyy and Trump have agreed a minerals deal – but it will not stop the war in Ukraine

Zelenskyy and Trump have agreed a minerals deal – but it will not stop the war in Ukraine
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LToremark
6 May 2025

For some, helping Ukraine is not worth the possibility of war. But if Russia is allowed to continue unopposed, almost everything is at risk.



Too many column inches have been wasted on inaccurate descriptions of the so-called minerals deal between the US and Ukraine. The deal has been hailed as 'historic', 'momentous', and a 180-degree change  in America's stances towards Ukraine  – and therefore towards Russia as well.

Not so fast. Many have cheered that there was mention – an admission – of Russia's invasion of Ukraine from the American side, and an apparent commitment to a future Ukraine that is, at least by implication, sovereign and independent.



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It is true that we seem to have recovered, somewhat, from the infamous Oval Office meeting in February, between the Ukrainian and American presidents. And the terms appear less blatantly extortionate than the ones thrust upon (and then rejected by) Ukraine  in February. In contrast to before, Ukraine will retain ownership over 'subsoil, infrastructure, and natural resources'  including decisions on what to extract.

But there is less here than meets the eye. We should be clear that there are no security guarantees for Ukraine of any sort – no US presence (beyond a commercial one) to back it up. In fact, this document confirms the cessation of US military aid to Ukraine that America has provided so far, and confirms that from now on, Ukraine will be accruing debt for any US weaponry it may receive. (And it is not guaranteeing that either.)

The benefits for Ukraine – aside from the optics of signing any agreement with the US – are dubious too, and would not come until after the war has ended.

In fact, depending on how you interpret the text, the agreement implies a possible US say in Ukraine holding elections (which the Kremlin wants) through its rather hypocritical insistence on Ukraine upholding democratic values; and a potential say on whether it should join the EU (which the Kremlin does not want). It would be foolish to assume that Trump and his inner circle would not push the Kremlin's requirements on these two issues.

The overall reason not to place faith in the deal is because it is subordinate to the US's ambition to have rapprochement with Russia.

But the overall reason not to place faith in the deal is because it is subordinate to the US's ambition to have rapprochement with Russia . Whether it is out of misplaced economic ambition vis-a-vis Russia or a Cold War mentality of 'great' and peer power carve-ups, the current incarnation of US decision-makers take a 'Russia first' principle.

However, counter-intuitively, the US's attempts to normalize relations with Russia are the main source of optimism. Not because they will work, but because they will not. That might seem perverse. Who would not want better relations between the world's two largest nuclear powers?

For some, Ukraine is not worth it. Not worth the risk of falling into war. That argument might make sense if this were only about Ukraine (though I am not conceding that point). But it is not. If Russia is allowed to continue unopposed – untroubled by Western support, or lack thereof – then almost everything is at risk. It would mean risks to wider European security, global trade (including sanctions relief), fundamental legal principles – perhaps even the fate of Taiwan and the ability to meet climate change goals. 


Source: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/05/zelenskyy-and-trump-have-agreed-minerals-deal-it-will-not-stop-war-ukraine May 06, 2025, 09:57 AM