The future of the Turkish opposition after Imamoglu’s arrest

[jon.wallace]

The future of the Turkish opposition after Imamoglu's arrest

The future of the Turkish opposition after Imamoglu's arrest
Expert comment
jon.wallace
1 May 2025

The implications will depend on how effectively the opposition can channel the energy unleashed by the arrest into political processes and narratives.



On 19 March, Istanbul's mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was taken into custody on charges of corruption and misuse of public office. Two days later, he was arrested. These dates are significant because on 23 March, Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), was scheduled to choose its presidential candidate in a primary for upcoming elections in 2028. Imamoglu was the sole candidate. This context has led a wide spectrum of the public to view the arrest as motivated more by the desire to remove a formidable presidential rival than address corruption.

Since Imamoglu's arrest, Turkey has experienced nationwide protests, which are gradually ebbing. The opposition has been morally and politically boosted by these events. And the CHP has political momentum now. However, with three years until the election, maintaining this momentum will be an uphill battle.

Much will depend on how effectively the opposition can channel the energy unleashed by the arrest into political processes and narratives, while navigating this new phase of Turkish politics.

Three issues are of paramount importance here: how to address the presidential candidate question; how to ensure that the CHP and its candidate can appeal beyond their traditional social base; and how to avoid identity politics and focus on governance and policy issues.
The candidate
For a long time, the Turkish opposition suffered from not having a viable candidate to electorally challenge President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The former leaders of the CHP, Deniz Baykal and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, lacked charisma and personal appeal – though the opposition received nearly 48 per cent of the vote in the second round of the 2023 presidential election, with Kılıçdaroğlu as joint candidate.

The CHP's recent dilemma has been how to manage the presence of multiple potential candidates and avoid intra-opposition rivalries emerging. 

However, after the opposition's victories in local elections in 2019 and 2024, the situation changed. The mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas respectively, emerged as popular political figures with nationwide appeal. So too did the the CHP's current chairman Özgür Özel, not least since the arrest of Imamoglu. Rather than a lack of a viable alternatives, the CHP's recent dilemma has been how to manage the presence of multiple potential candidates and avoid intra-opposition rivalries emerging. 

That said, Imamoglu has effectively acted as the leader of the opposition, despite not being the chairman of the CHP. Before the arrest, the opposition's choice of presidential candidate seemed settled in his favour. Indeed, the CHP has declared Imamoglu as its presidential candidate following its internal election, despite his imprisonment.



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However, with his arrest and the cancellation of his university certificate – a requirement to be president in Turkey  – Imamoglu may be prevented from running. In that event, the question of who will be the CHP's candidate will be back on the table. And efforts to agree a replacement candidate could lead to intra-opposition competition and even fragmentation if not managed well.

At this stage, CHP leader Özel is the more likely replacement. His political performance since the arrest has been strong. Furthermore, at the party's emergency congress held on 6 April, he consolidated his power.

In a sense, if Imamoglu is becoming a leader for the opposition's social base, Özel is emerging as its political leader. Yavas might yet become a candidate, but his chances are slimmer. Nevertheless, given his popularity in opinion polls, his actions could be highly consequential for the opposition's electoral prospects.
Beyond the base
To succeed in the elections, the CHP and its presidential candidate need to appeal beyond the party's traditional voting base. For a long time, the CHP's vote share hovered around 20 to 25 per cent. It struggled to attract votes from social groups such as Kurds and conservatives. For the government, this meant the existence of a boutique opposition incapable of credibly challenging its power.

However, this situation has changed in recent years. The CHP's former chairman Kılıçdaroğlu led efforts to broaden the party's social base focusing on outreach toward the Kurds and conservatives.  


Source: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/05/future-turkish-opposition-after-imamoglus-arrest May 01, 2025, 09:47 AM